Looking beyond the downturn - a changing downstream world 14.45 – 17.15, The Dorchester, London In partnership with: We are well into a refining recession and the debate is now: when will recovery in margins materialise - 2010? 2011? The severity and duration of the downturn will differ in each region, with the US worst hit and Asia best placed for recovery. Those players with the most competitive assets will still make money even in the worst market conditions – competitive position has once again become critical. For some years the IOCs have been withdrawing capital from the downstream as part of the drive to reweight their portfolios towards the upstream, while also rebalancing their exposure from the mature OECD markets to the emerging markets in Asia. Will the downturn accelerate the withdrawal of the IOCs from mature markets, or will it have the opposite effect, because the strategic value of retaining an integrated position from crude supply to customer once again becomes a key competitive advantage? What are the implications for independent refiners who have been a catalyst for the fragmentation of the supply chain over the last decade? Do the NOCs hold the aces and will they be the real winners post-downturn? This seminar will explore the possibilities for the global downstream industry beyond the downturn. 14.45 Registration and Coffee 15.00 Chairman's Opening Address Ben Holt, Vice President, Downstream Oil, Wood Mackenzie 15.05 Topic TBC Richard Hookway, Chief Financial Officer for Refining and Marketing, BP 15.35 Looking Beyond the Downturn Alan Gelder, Head of Downstream Consulting, Wood Mackenzie 16.05 Refreshments 16.25 Topic TBC Thomas Mueller, Head of Refining, Lukoil 16.55 Panel Discussion 17.15 Drinks Reception 18.30 Close